Research

Attribution of Climate Change in South America

Significant changes in average and extreme temperatures and precipitation have been identified in South America in recent decades, impacting socio-economic activities across the region. While progress has been made in describing these changes, there remains insufficient understanding of their causes. Knowledge gaps persist regarding alterations in regional and hemispheric atmospheric circulation that have led to these changes, as well as their sensibility to external forcings and internal climate system variability.

I am engaged in research focused on understanding the anthropogenic influence on observed changes in South American climate, with particular emphasis on mean precipitation in Southeastern South America, Southwestern South America, and the Altiplano region. This research integrates observations, reanalysis data, and model simulations from the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6).

Climate Variability on Interannual to Decadal Timescales

Climate variability on interannual to decadal timescales significantly influences socio-economic activities (e.g., agriculture, water resources, energy sector) and ecosystems. This variability is largely driven by global or hemispheric climate patterns such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). These patterns can alter hemispheric atmospheric circulation and imprint climate signals across South American regions.

In projects I have conducted or supervised, we have made progress in understanding how the zonally asymmetric circulation of the Southern Hemisphere could affect temperature or rainfall in continental areas, as well as how climate variability patterns could be linked to changes in rainfall across South America.

Climate Prediction on Interannual to Decadal Timescales

The near-future climate state (ranging from 2 to 20 years) results from a combination of external forcings (e.g., variations in incoming solar radiation or increases in greenhouse gas concentrations) and internal climate variability (e.g., ocean-atmosphere coupling). Predictability on these timescales arises from a combination of forecasting from initial conditions and forced boundary conditions. To advance the assessment of predictability and prediction skill at these scales, a series of experiments known as “decadal” experiments were developed. Analyses of decadal forecasts have shown that model initialization improves the quality of forecasts, particularly for sea surface temperature predictions in some basins. However, the performance of decadal forecasts over continental areas has received less attention, presenting a major challenge in exploring their potential.

Part of my research is dedicated to evaluating the performance of decadal predictions on South American climate and developing prediction tools.

Co-production of Climate Services

Research on understanding and predicting climate variability has made significant progress in recent decades globally, and particularly in South America. However, literature confirms a notable gap between this scientific knowledge and its social application. To bridge this gap, the scientific community has begun developing innovative methodologies focusing on interdisciplinary and inter-sectoral interaction.

Within the framework of the international CLIMAX project, we implemented a co-production initiative involving small farmers, political decision-makers, and an interdisciplinary team of researchers, including climatologists and anthropologists, in the Gran Chaco wetland area of Argentina. The objective was to co-produce climate information tools to support local family agriculture.